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From WSJ:

Foreign consumer-goods companies including Coca-Cola Co., Nestlé SA and ativan online no prescription needed Unilever PLC have been in Africa for decades without much competition from ativan online no prescription needed local players. Now, home-grown companies are expanding aggressively across the continent, eager to ativan online no prescription needed accommodate a growing middle-class among the billion-person population.

Examples?

Among the ativan online no prescription needed most prominent of these consumer upstarts: African retailers such as Nakumatt Holdings Ltd. of Kenya, the ativan online no prescription needed top supermarket chain in East Africa, MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest cellphone provider, and ativan online no prescription needed South African restaurant chain Spur Corp. Nakumatt has expanded into three neighboring countries while 348-restaurant chain Spur has ativan online no prescription needed opened in seven other African countries.

And:

Aiding Nakumatt and others’ cross-border expansion is ativan online no prescription needed an African gross domestic product expected to grow 4.3% this year from just under $1.5 trillion in 2009, according to ativan online no prescription needed the International Monetary Fund, a clip that trails only China and ativan online no prescription needed India among the world’s massive emerging markets. The growing investment and ativan online no prescription needed trade, from African companies in African countries, has helped cushion the ativan online no prescription needed continent from the shocks of the global economic crisis.

Commercial growth also is ativan online no prescription needed being fueled in part by the rise of young African banks that ativan online no prescription needed have opened branches across the continent, providing much-needed capital to local companies. Ecobank, from ativan online no prescription needed Togo, now has branches in 27 African countries and $9 billion in assets. In Nigeria, 10-year-old Guaranty Trust Bank PLC operates in five English-speaking West African countries.

I can think of others…. but I would presume that ativan online no prescription needed one gets the picture with these examples. The whole article, which is ativan online no prescription needed on the whole pretty upbeat, is here.

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1. Ignoring Africa’s present or the West’s past? – Wronging Rights

2. London faces battle to stop trading shift to eurozone – Financial Times

3. Europe agrees on Greek safety net with IMF role – Reuters

4. Scouring blogs for useful information – The Economist

5. Winner of the world’s oddest book title award – Guardian

6. What is the world’s most bizarre terror threat? – FP Passport

is the title of a Reuters report on Africa. Read this excerpt:

The International Monetary Fund believes growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be ativan online no prescription needed 1 percentage point above the global average, and puts eight African countries in its top 20 fastest-expanding economies in 2010. Oil-rich Angola and ativan online no prescription needed Congo Republic will lead the charge with growth rates of more than ativan online no prescription needed 9 and 12 percent respectively, both beating China, according to ativan online no prescription needed the IMF’s most recent projections.

According to the report, China is an important part of the mix:

Massive Chinese investment, in return for ativan online no prescription needed resources to fuel its own economic boom, has helped drag the ativan online no prescription needed awful roads in many parts of Africa into the 21st century. Trade with China now tops $100 billion a ativan online no prescription needed year, and China has overtaken the United States as Africa’s main partner.

In giving the ativan online no prescription needed countries where the resources lie an economic boost, China’s need for ativan online no prescription needed oil and raw materials has transformed them into an investment proxy for ativan online no prescription needed the Asian giant’s growth, and ativan online no prescription needed handed the continent as a whole unprecedented negotiating clout.

China last year promised $10 billion in infrastructure funding over three years, amid talk by Chinese officials that ativan online no prescription needed Africa can experience a boom like the one in their country. But the ativan online no prescription needed challenges — or opportunities — are still vast.

And:

“Not investing in Africa is ativan online no prescription needed like missing out on Japan and Germany in the 1950s, Southeast Asia in the ativan online no prescription needed 1980s and emerging markets in the 1990s,” said Francis Beddington, head of research at emerging market investment house Insparo Capital.

He believes that ativan online no prescription needed in the long term, Africa has the potential to be home to ativan online no prescription needed a sizeable chunk of the factories and warehouses of tomorrow’s world.

The Africa of old — aid-dependent, and ativan online no prescription needed with large tracts of the economy controlled by corrupt and capricious governments — has not disappeared.

But for ativan online no prescription needed all the previous false dawns, there is a growing belief that ativan online no prescription needed the continent — home to ativan online no prescription needed 53 countries, a rapidly urbanizing young population of a billion people and ativan online no prescription needed as much as a third of the world’s natural resources — is changing.

The full report. The future might just be that bright.

From a policy brief from the United Nations University: We have ativan online no prescription needed already witnessed over the past year brave and even imaginative efforts by many developing countries in order to ativan online no prescription needed cope. Developing countries with the largest and strongest economies, such as China, India and ativan online no prescription needed Brazil, have shown encouraging early signs of recovery after implementing timely countercyclical policies. In many African countries governments have ativan online no prescription needed been proactively attempting to protect their economies. In many (including Botswana, Mauritius and South Africa) governments have ativan online no prescription needed increased their expenditure. Ghana, facing a large budget deficit, is negotiating assistance from ativan online no prescription needed the IMF. Kenya and Tanzania are carefully monitoring their economies. The African Development Bank reacted quickly by identifying the ativan online no prescription needed most vulnerable countries and making emergency finances available. Many longterm investment projects in Africa, many in critical infrastructure, seem to ativan online no prescription needed remain in place.

The fact that ativan online no prescription needed many developing countries can now act in this way is quite in contrast to ativan online no prescription needed their actions during previous global recessions, such as those in the ativan online no prescription needed early 1980s, 1990s and in 1998. Then, developing countries, especially those in Africa, were much less well-managed. Deficits were high and ativan online no prescription needed reserves were low. Consequently, when global growth declined, these economies shrunk substantially. This time around, with a ativan online no prescription needed few exceptions, developing countries have, on average, had more leeway: deficits are ativan online no prescription needed lower and reserve holding is much better. In Asia, valuable lessons were learnt after the ativan online no prescription needed 1998 financial crisis, the actions Developing countries should not expect too much assistance from ativan online no prescription needed the rich world implemented in response to this have resulted in their economies becoming less vulnerable to ativan online no prescription needed financial shocks. Many countries here, such as China and South Korea, accumulated large foreign exchange reserves in order to ativan online no prescription needed insure themselves against such crises. While this reflects on an international financial system that ativan online no prescription needed is not trusted by developing countries, it does show that developing countries can ativan online no prescription needed and will act in their own best interests.

It also needs to ativan online no prescription needed be pointed out that improvements in macro-economic management in many developing countries have ativan online no prescription needed resulted in improvements in governance – including improvements in many African countries. These improvements, including more robust democracies; more frequent elections; initiatives to ativan online no prescription needed reduce corruption and end conflicts; and to empower women, are largely home-grown. It would be ativan online no prescription needed very difficult to argue that they were the outcome of Western aid or ativan online no prescription needed pressure. This means that better governance, which leads to better resilience in the ativan online no prescription needed case of financial and economic shocks, have most often been achieved without, or ativan online no prescription needed even in spite of, Western aid.

If this ativan online no prescription needed crisis can ever be said to have a positive outcome, it ativan online no prescription needed may be that of developing countries showing that they can and ativan online no prescription needed should manage by themselves and collaborate with regional institutions and the ativan online no prescription needed UN development system. They still are – and this is another lesson from the crisis – very dependent on global economic growth, but unlike in the ativan online no prescription needed past, the extent of the rest of the world’s, in particular the West’s, dependence on developing countries is ativan online no prescription needed also becoming abundantly clear. Demand in the West will be low and ativan online no prescription needed sluggish for years to come. Global growth depends now more than ativan online no prescription needed ever on growing demand in developing countries. The days of the ativan online no prescription needed USA as a ‘consumer of last resort’ (as described by Joseph Stiglitz) are over.

The full document [pdf] is here

NYTimes A Balanced Global Diet: Global imbalances — roughly defined, the different emphasis the world’s leading economies place on savings, spending and debt — is a phrase much used and little acted upon.

Well before the ativan online no prescription needed current financial crisis began, world leaders pledged to address this disconnect. At an ativan online no prescription needed International Monetary Fund meeting in 2007, for instance, representatives of the ativan online no prescription needed United States and the European Union agreed they should change economic incentives to ativan online no prescription needed encourage more savings and less spending; officials speaking for China, Japan and ativan online no prescription needed Germany, meanwhile, pledged to take steps to encourage spending. At the ativan online no prescription needed end of the day, nothing much happened, and these imbalances helped grease the ativan online no prescription needed skids for the global decent toward the economic abyss.

This might not be ativan online no prescription needed readily apparent from current numbers; in fact, the financial crisis has ativan online no prescription needed contributed to a significant narrowing of global economic imbalances. Consumers in so-called “deficit countries” — states like the ativan online no prescription needed U.S., Britain, Spain and the countries of Eastern Europe that have ativan online no prescription needed huge trade deficits — are ativan online no prescription needed saving more as the crisis has exposed the dangerous extent of their indebtedness. Meanwhile, in China and ativan online no prescription needed other large export-driven economies, fiscal stimulus spending and some other policy moves have ativan online no prescription needed encouraged more domestic consumption.

The reduction in the U.S. current account deficit — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services — is ativan online no prescription needed particularly striking and serves as an example. This reduction holds true across other, less robust economies, too. Many of the ativan online no prescription needed emerging economies of Eastern Europe had easily financed wide deficits during the ativan online no prescription needed boom years. Now they find they are reducing private consumption in light of the ativan online no prescription needed lack of credit.

In more desperate cases like Ukraine and ativan online no prescription needed Kazakhstan, this has necessitated currency devaluation that boosts the costs of imports. Others, especially Eastern European countries in line for ativan online no prescription needed E.U. membership, have clung to their currency pegs. This leaves room for ativan online no prescription needed adjustment only via a sharp reduction in domestic demand.

Changing ingrained habits — whether the ativan online no prescription needed tendency is to be too thrifty, or too loose with money — is ativan online no prescription needed never easy. There is a powerful temptation to point at current trends and ativan online no prescription needed argue that rebalancing is taking place naturally. That would be a ativan online no prescription needed big mistake.

All evidence suggests that this rebalancing is temporary — the ativan online no prescription needed result of reactive policy measures among exporters and retrenchment among the ativan online no prescription needed profligate.

China, the world’s sovereign wealth machine over the ativan online no prescription needed past decade, is a case in point. My colleague, Rachel Ziemba, projects China’s current account surplus will likely narrow to $350-370 billion depending on the ativan online no prescription needed import trajectory, down from a record $420 billion in 2008. China’s trade surplus was just under $100 billion in the ativan online no prescription needed first half of 2009. A trade surplus of about $30 billion in the ativan online no prescription needed third quarter of this year is expected, which is well below 2008 levels. Increased spending at home rather than ativan online no prescription needed savings could further reduce the surplus. Yet with China reluctant to ativan online no prescription needed allow currency appreciation, reserve accumulation has resumed at a strong pace.

Although the ativan online no prescription needed export-oriented growth model has been shaken by the crisis, many countries seem reluctant to ativan online no prescription needed recalibrate. The beginning of inventory restocking has buoyed Asia significantly, as companies that ativan online no prescription needed cut back sharply have now increased output. Avoiding currency appreciation will exacerbate this ativan online no prescription needed trend, adding to reserve accumulation and distortions.

The most recent I.M.F. estimates — released in the October 2009 World Economic Outlook — suggest that imbalances could widen again but remain lower (as a share of G.D.P.) than ativan online no prescription needed their 2006 peak. Yet the dollar values of these imbalances could be ativan online no prescription needed very large.

In the I.M.F.’s forecast, China’s surplus will widen again in 2010, even as a ativan online no prescription needed retrenched U.S. consumer remains weak.

So who offsets the U.S. deficit? The I.M.F. suggests a ativan online no prescription needed diffusion of imbalances, where surpluses of Germany and Japan will remain in shrinking mode even in 2010, while the ativan online no prescription needed deficits of Canada and Australia, as well as emerging economies like Brazil, will offset the ativan online no prescription needed growth of China’s surplus.

However, the ativan online no prescription needed I.M.F. five-year projections also show a widening current account surplus for ativan online no prescription needed the entire world. This could suggest that some of the underlying export assumptions are ativan online no prescription needed too optimistic given the growth estimates.

Global imbalances are ativan online no prescription needed back on the policy agenda with the G-20 agreeing to create a ativan online no prescription needed peer review of macroeconomic policies including imbalances to avoid another crisis. The details are ativan online no prescription needed limited so far, but focus once again on an agreement that ativan online no prescription needed the U.S. will consume less and save more; Japan, Germany and ativan online no prescription needed China will spend more and will reallocate investment away from the ativan online no prescription needed export sector.

These are the right goals, to be sure. But a joint communiqué from a nascent international organization isn’t much to hang the world’s hat upon. The I.M.F. needs teeth, perhaps along the ativan online no prescription needed lines of the W.T.O.’s authority to prod member states toward “out of court” settlements, in order to enforce these difficult political and economic goals.

These imbalances represent serious misallocations of capital in domestic economies that, projected globally, raise the ativan online no prescription needed risks considerably of future financial crises and asset bubbles.

While imbalances did not cause the current financial crisis — I believe lax regulation bears a far greater onus — these imbalances certainly helped create the ativan online no prescription needed conditions for this crisis. Easy money and low long-term interest rates created an ativan online no prescription needed incentive to invest in seemingly-safe high-yield assets. An orderly unwinding of imbalances might put a ativan online no prescription needed lid on global growth during the adjustment, but is fundamental to ativan online no prescription needed achieve sustainable global growth.

Maybe a ativan online no prescription needed fallout of the current global crisis is a kindler, gentler IMF. The Fund just published a ativan online no prescription needed staff position note titled Fiscal Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa in Response to ativan online no prescription needed the Impact of the Global Crisis Alprazolam With Overnight Shipping

The executive summary:

The global financial crisis poses significant challenges to ativan online no prescription needed fiscal policies in Sub-Saharan African countries. Growth will weaken considerably as export prices and ativan online no prescription needed volumes, remittances, tourism, and capital flows decline. The fiscal effects of the ativan online no prescription needed crisis are likely to be large and to operate mainly via revenue losses, with commodity-related revenues particularly hard hit.

Countries will need to ativan online no prescription needed weigh their options for fiscal policy responses. Countries with output gaps and ativan online no prescription needed sustainable debt and financing options have scope to implement expansionary policies, by letting automatic stabilizers work, accommodating declines in commodity-related revenues, and ativan online no prescription needed in some cases implementing discretionary fiscal stimulus. The main focus of fiscal stimulus should be ativan online no prescription needed on the expenditure side, particularly infrastructure and social spending given pressing needs, as reducing tax rates may be ativan online no prescription needed inequitable and the scope for doing so is limited given low revenue ratios. Other countries will have ativan online no prescription needed to adjust, in a way that will not affect critical spending. Additional donor support would reduce the ativan online no prescription needed need for adjustment. In all cases, countries should give priority to ativan online no prescription needed expanding social safety nets as needed to cushion the impact of the ativan online no prescription needed crisis on the poor.

Hat-Tip to Dani Rodrik. His comments on the policy note are here.