by SEYE ABIMBOLA*
Lately, I have Alprazolam Online Buy inundated myself with a series of incredibly enlightening dispatches from TED Talks. Listening to Alprazolam Online Buy them, especially those related to international health and development has been Alprazolam Online Buy a wonderful respite from my undesirably excessive clinical workload. The one by University of Chicago economist, Emily Oster, who Alprazolam Online Buy shared her work and ideas on HIV/AIDS in Africa at last year’s TED, however struck me as particularly, if unwittingly, poorly conceived. Her theoretical abstractions reveal in shameful detail how easily tainted the Alprazolam Online Buy lens through which the developing world is seen from the outside, and Alprazolam Online Buy the kind of thinking that underlie the misconceptions that inform the Alprazolam Online Buy largely skewed global health priorities.
Emily Oster based her first argument on a Alprazolam Online Buy shaky, if not completely false premise, justifying a claim that there was no Alprazolam Online Buy behavioural change in response to the HIV pandemic in Africa by juxtaposing data from Alprazolam Online Buy two radically different cohorts — homosexuals in the Alprazolam Online Buy US and heterosexuals in Africa. High HIV prevalence within a population where Alprazolam Online Buy there is widespread awareness of heterosexual sex as the predominant mode of transmission will result in increased rate of abstinence from Alprazolam Online Buy sex or at least a modification of sexual behaviour as an Alprazolam Online Buy evolutionary compulsion to preserve the species. Without elaborate public health campaign to Alprazolam Online Buy promote abstinence, HIV prevalence would have reduced on its own. That is Alprazolam Online Buy what you would expect, but Oster says it was not so in Africa. She compares data from Alprazolam Online Buy gay men in the US in the eighties, (where Alprazolam Online Buy the men that had more than 1 unprotected sexual partner within a Alprazolam Online Buy month reduced from 85% to 55% in 4 years) with data from Alprazolam Online Buy single men having premarital sex and married men having extramarital sex in Africa dropped by only 2%.
There are obvious flaws in Oster’s argument apart from Alprazolam Online Buy cohort mismatch. Her homosexual cohort had a reduction in the number of unprotected sexual partners, whereas there was no Alprazolam Online Buy specification as to the nature of sex amongst the African cohort: protected or Alprazolam Online Buy not, homosexual or heterosexual. She did not give any idea of the Alprazolam Online Buy HIV prevalence amongst the said African population(s), so we cannot possibly estimate the Alprazolam Online Buy cost of sex among the population, and arrive at any predictable behavioural change based on that. We know though, that Alprazolam Online Buy HIV prevalence among gay men was about the highest in America in the Alprazolam Online Buy early and mid eighties.
However, even if Emily Oster’s two cohorts were by any chance or Alprazolam Online Buy twist of logic comparable, and if there was indeed no behavioural change in response to Alprazolam Online Buy HIV in Africa, her explanation for this — the Alprazolam Online Buy cost of abstinence is so high that in the presence of low life expectancy, people would rather not bother to Alprazolam Online Buy live healthy lifestyles, they’d rather prefer to Alprazolam Online Buy expose themselves to the risk of contracting HIV/AIDS since they’re gonna die early anyway — is Alprazolam Online Buy as unconvincing and implausible. Oster demonstrated that in places and within populations in Africa with high prevalence of malaria and Alprazolam Online Buy high maternal mortality, there was no positive change in sexual behaviour in response to Alprazolam Online Buy HIV. She did this, totally ignoring two huge, glaringly obvious confounding variables, poverty and Alprazolam Online Buy lack of basic health services, leading causes of low life expectancy in Africa, together with lack of adequate sanitation and Alprazolam Online Buy good water supply, which promote the presence and spread of diseases, and Alprazolam Online Buy in themselves, inextricably linked to poverty.
This is actually where Oster’s greatest mistake lies, and Alprazolam Online Buy unfortunately, it is what forms the main thrust of her thesis. M. Khan and Alprazolam Online Buy colleagues in Burkina Faso, found that even within a developing country, the Alprazolam Online Buy sex network within rural areas is denser, more closely interlinked than Alprazolam Online Buy in urban areas, and the percentage of those who receive goods for Alprazolam Online Buy sex is far greater in the semi-rural border area (45%) and urban area (31%) than in the rural areas (12%). This is Alprazolam Online Buy easily explained. There is far greater homogeneity in relation to poverty in rural areas compared to Alprazolam Online Buy urban or semi-rural areas, and so there are fewer people who Alprazolam Online Buy are prepared to offer money or goods for sex. Poverty too breeds idleness, and Alprazolam Online Buy it is easy to imagine that an idle man will easily have Alprazolam Online Buy multiple sexual partners in a community where money is not given in return for Alprazolam Online Buy sex. This explains why poverty may be associated with high levels of sexual activity. In these settings, there is Alprazolam Online Buy high maternal mortality both from unsafe abortion, and because maternity care is Alprazolam Online Buy not available. Where poverty abounds and Alprazolam Online Buy basic health services are not there, mortality from malaria will be Alprazolam Online Buy high. Where there is no access to basic health services like STI prevention and Alprazolam Online Buy treatment and modern contraception, there will be poor awareness of the Alprazolam Online Buy presence, reality and prevalence of HIV. Illness and death from HIV is Alprazolam Online Buy attributed to other diseases, witchcraft, the will of God et cetera, hence diagnostic, prevention and Alprazolam Online Buy treatment services, even if available will suffer low uptake in the Alprazolam Online Buy absence of these basic health services.
Emily Oster however asserts that Alprazolam Online Buy HIV prevalence rises with increase in economic activity and urbanization. She evokes the Alprazolam Online Buy oft-quoted high HIV prevalence amongst truck drivers and migrants to support this Alprazolam Online Buy claim. She also showed that the fall in HIV prevalence in Uganda was closely associated with a Alprazolam Online Buy fall in the export price of tobacco, Uganda’s main export commodity. All of these are Alprazolam Online Buy true, if only in part, but yet again, she misses the Alprazolam Online Buy point. It is not wealth as an absolute quantity that encourages increase in sexual activity, hence HIV prevalence; rather it Alprazolam Online Buy is the widening of the gap between the rich and the Alprazolam Online Buy poor, increased contact between the rich and the poor, and the Alprazolam Online Buy attendant dynamics, the differential power gradient, that characterises the relationships between the Alprazolam Online Buy two classes. Much of extramarital and premarital sex is facilitated by an Alprazolam Online Buy economic advantage of one party, often the male, over the other. With a Alprazolam Online Buy fall in export price of tobacco in Uganda for example, the Alprazolam Online Buy gap between the rich and the poor is less, there is Alprazolam Online Buy less money available to maintain multiple sexual partners and visit commercial sex workers, thereby reducing the Alprazolam Online Buy sexual network, and also, predictably, HIV prevalence, at least in part.
Marjolein Gysels and Alprazolam Online Buy colleagues at the Medical Research Council Programme on AIDS observed and Alprazolam Online Buy interviewed truck drivers and commercial sex workers at a roadside town in southwest Uganda. Truck drivers are Alprazolam Online Buy a high-risk group for HIV due to their sexual networking and Alprazolam Online Buy long periods away from home. They stop at towns along major routes to Alprazolam Online Buy eat, sleep, sell goods and 94% of those interviewed would regularly have Alprazolam Online Buy sex when they spend the night at the truck stop. Commercial sex work was found to Alprazolam Online Buy be common but quite hidden and implicit in this setting and Alprazolam Online Buy is centered around roadside bars; hence intermediaries are often involved in negotiations between drivers and Alprazolam Online Buy commercial sex workers. However, in the wake of HIV/AIDS, the Alprazolam Online Buy middlemen on whom truck drivers rely to find women have Alprazolam Online Buy had an additional role, which is to identify HIV-negative women, and Alprazolam Online Buy in spite of this, condom use was reportedly high, at 95%, in marked contrast to Alprazolam Online Buy local men. HIV prevalence used to be very high among drivers and Alprazolam Online Buy at truck stops. In the study town it was 40% in 1991; in the surrounding district it was 8% in 2001. The demand for Alprazolam Online Buy casual sex however appears not to have decreased among truck drivers in the Alprazolam Online Buy era of HIV, but there is a general awareness that this Alprazolam Online Buy lifestyle carries the risk of infection. This shows indeed, that there has Alprazolam Online Buy been behaviour change in response to the HIV pandemic in Africa; contrary to Alprazolam Online Buy what Emily Oster will have us believe.
In 2004, 12% of children with malaria died as inpatients at the Alprazolam Online Buy national hospital in Guinea-Bissau. Special drug kits for children with severe and Alprazolam Online Buy complicated malaria were introduced, but this did not reduce mortality. In an Alprazolam Online Buy award winning BMJ study in 2007, Sidu Biai and colleagues tested in a Alprazolam Online Buy randomised trial of under-5 children admitted with malaria, whether removal of prescription charges, strict monitoring of patients, and Alprazolam Online Buy financial incentives for doctors and nurses could reduce mortality. Mortality indeed came down to Alprazolam Online Buy 5% in the intervention group and 10% in controls, reflecting the Alprazolam Online Buy crucial role of poverty in mortality from malaria. The only difference between the Alprazolam Online Buy two groups was that doctors and nurses were given financial incentives in one group and Alprazolam Online Buy they were not in the other, which alone reduced the Alprazolam Online Buy mortality by as much as 5%. Given, the Alprazolam Online Buy drugs were free in both groups; maybe that explains a fall in mortality from Alprazolam Online Buy 12% pre trial to 10% in the control group. Weigh this against the 5% reduction, when Alprazolam Online Buy health workers were given added incentives. From this, it is clear that Alprazolam Online Buy with just three simple interventions — i.e. if we could make basic health services available, if patients could afford the Alprazolam Online Buy drugs and other services and if health workers were well remunerated — we could cut under-5 mortality from malaria by more than half.
It is Alprazolam Online Buy much the same story with maternal mortality. Obstructed labour and Alprazolam Online Buy ruptured uterus, eclampsia and other forms of hypertensive disease in pregnancy, obstetric haemorrhage mostly postpartum, puerperal sepsis, and Alprazolam Online Buy unsafe abortion are still the main causes of maternal mortality. However, in the Alprazolam Online Buy presence of accessible basic health services, they disappear as in Sri Lanka where Alprazolam Online Buy maternal mortality ratio dropped from 550 per 100,000 live births in 1950-55 to Alprazolam Online Buy 80 per 100,000 live births in 1975-80, and 58 per 100,000 live births in 2005. This was achieved by introducing a Alprazolam Online Buy system of health centres all over Sri Lanka, and making quality maternal care services available and Alprazolam Online Buy accessible to all including in rural areas. In Sri Lanka, 94% (1993) of deliveries are assisted by a skilled attendant, compared to 42% (1999) in Nigeria, with one of the Alprazolam Online Buy worst maternal mortality ratios in the world (1,100 per 100,000 live births). This has Alprazolam Online Buy been replicated in Cuba, where in 1970, the maternal mortality ratio was 73 per 100,000 live births, and Alprazolam Online Buy in 2000, it had more than halved to 33 per 100,000 live births. In 1999, skilled attendants assisted every (100%) delivery in Cuba, after maternity care services were made available and Alprazolam Online Buy free including accessible referral centres for complications.
Hospital wards in many developing countries are Alprazolam Online Buy a heartbreaking, pathetic sight. The most basic and common place of materials, things you Alprazolam Online Buy would otherwise take for granted, the most routine of investigations are Alprazolam Online Buy often procured at great cost, from private pharmacies and laboratories that Alprazolam Online Buy have clustered around government run hospitals over the years owing to Alprazolam Online Buy the ineptitude of the hospitals to run efficient services. Worse still, these hospitals stock the Alprazolam Online Buy drugs and have those equipments, but the regular story is Alprazolam Online Buy that the equipment stopped working after a few months, the Alprazolam Online Buy model is outdated, there are no staff to man them because they are Alprazolam Online Buy off moonlighting or do not work during call hours or Alprazolam Online Buy take weekend shifts, or even the bureaucracy of getting to Alprazolam Online Buy buy the drugs or get the investigations done in the Alprazolam Online Buy hospital is enough to push them outside. No matter how bad a Alprazolam Online Buy patient is, no matter the emergency, the family usually has Alprazolam Online Buy to pay for services and procure materials for treatment at the Alprazolam Online Buy point of service. Usually, there are no provisions for emergency. These patients are Alprazolam Online Buy also seen by poorly motivated health workers, who themselves are Alprazolam Online Buy poorly paid. The distance from access, the prohibitive costs of hospital treatment and Alprazolam Online Buy admission keep patients away, all contribute heavily to low life expectancy.
In sharp contrast to Alprazolam Online Buy this, some new structures are also sprouting in hospitals or Alprazolam Online Buy around them. They are highly efficient units, dedicated to single disease programmes, often HIV/AIDS, provided and Alprazolam Online Buy funded by external donors. An AIDS orphan who lives with siblings in squalor without access to Alprazolam Online Buy insecticide treated nets and artemisinin based combination therapy for malaria, whose sister does not have Alprazolam Online Buy access to specialised obstetric care in pregnancy, gets antiretrovirals for free at these units. Those with more rou¬tine diseases receive poor care and Alprazolam Online Buy still have to pay. Hospital staff who are supposed to be Alprazolam Online Buy at their duty posts seeing patients that they were trained and Alprazolam Online Buy being paid salaries and allowances to see are often busy running those units, with extra remuneration often in hard currency, often surpassing their salaries, at great expense of the Alprazolam Online Buy system. This is the newest brand of internal brain drain in sub-Saharan Africa.
Single disease priorities generally weaken health systems. Of all, spending on HIV research, treatment and Alprazolam Online Buy prevention activities is the most notorious example of this prodigality. In 2006, although Zambia’s entire Ministry of Health budget was only $136m, the President’s Emergency Plan for Alprazolam Online Buy AIDS Relief provided the country with an HIV targeted budget of $150m. This unbalanced distribution of health funding occurs across sub-Saharan Africa. Making HIV into a Alprazolam Online Buy pivot, raising it to the status of the zeitgeist of the Alprazolam Online Buy times has indeed skewed health priorities at both national – in many developing countries – and, most importantly at global levels. There is Alprazolam Online Buy only so much we can achieve, with HIV at the Alprazolam Online Buy centre of our planning and initiatives. We cannot move ahead while we ignore so much. What more evidence do we need, than Alprazolam Online Buy that with all the spending on HIV, much too little is Alprazolam Online Buy being achieved.
Healthcare and Alprazolam Online Buy development are so interlinked that it would be grossly wrong to Alprazolam Online Buy interpret data without due consideration for the whole picture and connections that Alprazolam Online Buy are not immediately apparent. It is not enough to have epidemiological data, without the Alprazolam Online Buy insight to interpret them and discern underlying trends. Poverty and the Alprazolam Online Buy lack of basic social and health services is at the centre of what Alprazolam Online Buy defines developing countries, and that is really where our attention should be Alprazolam Online Buy focussed in trying to find solutions to problems in these countries; any thinking that Alprazolam Online Buy as much as puts these as second to any other priority is Alprazolam Online Buy ultimately bound to fail. Until these form the crux of both local and Alprazolam Online Buy global public health interest and policy, much of our effort will only continue to Alprazolam Online Buy result in the proverbial one step forward, two steps backward.
*This is the first in a series of posts from guest bloggers.
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Seye Abimbola is Alprazolam Online Buy a medical doctor in Nigeria. This article is an abridged version of an Alprazolam Online Buy article that will be published in the Spring edition of Perspectives on Global Issues.
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